INTRODUCTION
The Purpose of the Survey
In conjunction with the first anniversary of the Mt. Kumgang tours, a
survey was conducted to gauge the opinions of the South Korean people
regarding Mt. Kumgang project. The purpose of the article is to analyze
the material that was gathered. The survey was conducted especially to
measure the influence of Mt. Kumgang tours on the attitudes of the South
Korean people toward the North. This article, thus, analyzes the material
from the questionnaires concerning the effects of the Mt. Kumgang tours
and the Korean government's policy toward the North.
While the Mt. Kumgang project is now being run by a private enterprise,
the Hyundai Group, it is actually the symbol of President Kim Dae-jung's
"Sunshine Policy" to engage the North. This article, therefore,
will show the South Korean people's evaluation of the Kim Dae-jung government's
North Korean policy. To that end, the survey included not only a group
of Mt. Kumgang visitors, but also a group of ordinary citizens who had
not visited Mt. Kumgang, and a group of specialists on North Korean affairs.
Survey Process
The same questionnaires were sent to three groups.
A. ordinary citizens: divided into two groups-Mt. Kumgang visitors and non-visitors
Mt. Kumgang visitors
- number of cases: 1012
- method of survey: Mt. Kumgang visitors asked at random to fill out questionnaires
- survey agency: the Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES) of Kyungnam University and the Graduate School of North Korea Studies (GSNKS), Kyungnam Univ ersity
- date: October 15 - 25, 1999Non-visitors
- number of cases: 993
- method of survey: random telephone interview, proportionally divided by region
- survey agency: commissioned by the IFES and the GSNKS and conducted by Research and Research Company.
- date: October 16, 1999
B. Group of Specialists on North Korean affairs
- number of cases: 200
- method of survey: to send questionnaires were sent by mail or fax
- survey agency: the IFES and the GSNKS
- date: October 20 - 30, 1999
ANALYSIS OF DATA
Questions about the Mt. Kumgang tour
Questions about the Mt. Kumgang tour
A. What was the purpose of your visit? (asked only of Mt. Kumgang visitors)
A total of 59% of Mt. Kumgang visitors said that the purpose of their visits was just for sightseeing. 20.2% said that "the symbolic importance of a visit to North Korea" was the main reason for their visits. Only 4.7% of the respondents said that a yearning to see their relatives in the North was the reason for their visits.
| A. What was the purpose of your visit? | ratio(%) |
| Just for sightseeing Because if the symbolic importance of a visit to North Korea. Because North Korea is my hometown or because I miss my relatives who live in North Korea very much. Other answers Total Number of cases |
59.0 20.2 4.7
16.1 |
B. Do you want to visit again? (asked only of Mt. Kumgang visitors)
Questioned whether they would visit again, 35% of the respondents said "yes" and 53.8% said that they would like to visit again if new sightseeing programs were provided. Overall, 88.8% replied in the affirmative. Only 11.2% of the respondents said "no."
| B. Do you want to visit again? | ratio(%) |
|
Yes Yes, if new sightseeing programs are provided. no Total Number of cases |
35.0 53.8 11.2 100.0 1001 |
C. Was the Mt. Kumgang tour helpful to you in understanding North Korea? (asked only of Mt. Kumgang visitors)
Questioned whether the Mt. Kumgang tour was helpful to them in understanding North Korea, 71.0% of the respondents said "yes," while only 9.1% said "no," indicating that the Mt. Kumgang tour helped them in understanding North Korea.
| C. Was the Mt. Kumkang tour helpful to you in understanding North Korea? | ratio(%) |
| Yes, it was helpful to me in understanding North Korea. No, it was not helpful at all in understandingNorth Korea. It's difficult to answer. Total Number of cases |
71.0 9.1 19.9
100.0 |
D. Do you have relatives in North Korea? (asked both Mt. Kumgang visitors and non-visitors)
In terms of individuals with relatives in North Korea, it may lead them to participate in Mt. Kumgang tours, so the following question was asked: Do you have any relatives in North Korea? As expected, among the respondents, those who had relatives in North Korea showed a 30% higher participation rate than those who did not have relatives in North Korea. The percentage of Mt. Kumgang visitors who had relatives in North Korea was 64.3%, while those who had no relatives in North Korea totalled 35.7%.
Questions about the evaluation on the Mt. Kumgang tours with regard to the relations between the two Koreas (Comparison between visitors and non-visitors)
E. Will the Mt. Kumgang tours contribute to the normalization of relations between the two Koreas?
Asked to evaluate the Mt. Kumgang tours' effect on exchange and cooperation
between the two Koreas, most of the respondents replied in the affirmative:
62.8% said "yes." There was a sharp contrast, however, between
the visitors and non-visitors. Among the Mt. Kumgang visitors, 71.92%
answered "yes" to the question, while only 53.5% of the non-visitors
answered "yes" to the same question. The contrast widens when
it comes to the negative responses. While only 6.2% of the Mt. Kumgang
visitors replied in the negative, 33.4% of the non-visitors said that
the Mt. Kumgang tours didn't contribute at all to the exchange and cooperation
between the two Koreas.
Among the specialist group, the rate of the affirmative answers was higher
than that of non-visitors. A relatively high 68.5% of the specialist group
replied in the affirmative to the question, although it is lower than
that of Mt. Kumgang visitors. But the rate of negative answers was also
high, in fact, three times as high as that of the Mt. Kumgang visitors.
F. Will the Mt. Kumgang tours contribute to changing the attitude of North Korea?
Questioned whether the Mt. Kumgang tours will contribute to changing
the hostile attitude of North Korea toward the South, most respondents
replied in the affirmative. A total of 56.5% said that it contributed
to changing the hostile attitude of the North. There was also a sharp
contrast between the Mt. Kumgang visitors and the non-visitors to the
question: 67.1% of Mt. Kumgang visitors replied in the affirmative while
non-visitors were almost evenly divided between yes and no. Among the
non-visitors, 45.8% replied in the affirmative, while 45.2% replied in
the negative. With regard to the negative attitudes, the contrast between
the two groups is more evident. Only 8.3% of the Mt. Kumgang visitors
said that the Mt. Kumgang tours didn't contribute to changing the attitude
of North Korea, while 33.4% of the non-visitors replied in the negative
to the same question.
The specialist group showed a middle-of-the-road attitude, but were most
similar to the opinions of Mt. Kumgang visitors. 53.8% replied in the
affirmative to the same question while the rate of negative reponses was
only 25.3%.
G. Will the Mt. Kumgang tours contribute to increasing the national credibility of South Korea?
Questioned whether the Mt. Kumgang tours would contribute to increasing
the national credibility of South Korea, thus helping to solve the foreign
currency crisis, and easing the tension on the Korean peninsula, almost
half of the respondents replied in the affirmative. This also revealed
the sharp contrast between the Mt. Kumgang visitors and non-visitors;
the rate of affirmative answers among Mt. Kumgang visitors was 20% higher
than that of non-visitors. Especially, with regard to the negative answers
that the Mt. Kumgang tours didn't contribute at all to increasing national
credibility of South Korea, the contrast between the two groups became
more evident; 10.7% of Mt. Kumgang visitors replied in the negative while
45% of the non-visitors said "no" to the same question.
Less than 50% of specialist group replied in the affirmative to the question.
But compared to non-visitors, the rate of negative answers was much lower
than that of non-visitors, while the rate of those who could not answer
yes or no was much higher than that of negative answers.
H. In June 1999, tension increased between the South and the North because of North Korea's military provocation in Northern Limit Line (NLL). Did the Mt. Kumgang tours contribute to easing the tension provoked by June's West Sea naval clash?
Asked whether the Mt. Kumgang tours would help South Koreans recover
from the shock of the naval clash in the West Sea, the respondents answered
almost the same to the previous questions. But compared to other questions,
the rate of affirmative answers was relatively low. Overall, 45.6% replied
in the affirmative to the question, while the negative reached 35.9%.
There was also a sharp contrast between the Mt. Kumgang visitors and the
non-visitors, as to the other questions: 56.4% of Mt. Kumgang visitors
replied in the affirmative, while 34.6% of the non-visitors said "yes"
to the same question. With regard to the negative answers that the Mt.
Kumgang tours were not helpful in easing the tension caused by the 'West
Sea incident,' the two groups showed very different opinions: 17% of the
Mt. Kumgang visitors replied in the negative, while the rate of negative
answers of non-visitors reached 55%.
The answers of specialist group stood almost between those of the two
groups, although closer to the negative opinions. Only 34.7% of specialist
group answered that the Mt. Kumgang tours contributed to easing tension
provoked by the naval clash in the West Sea, while 36.9%, almost the same
percentage as the affirmative answer, replied in the negative to the same
question.
I. How do you think North Korea will spend the money it receives from the South in return for allowing the Mt. Kumgang tours?
Questioned about the money that the North receives from the South in
return for allowing the Mt. Kumgang tours, many more respondents 41.6%
believed that the North might divert the fees to the military while few
6.5% believed that the fees would be used to aid the economy. Notably,
non-visitors attached a strong suspicion to North Korea's diversion of
fees to military uses, shown by the high rate of negative answers, 61.2%,
which was three times as high as that of the Mt. Kumgang visitors, 22.4%.
It is remarkable that only 18.7% of the specialist group said that the
North might divert the fees to military uses. A total of 57.6% of the
specialist group said that the fees would be used for both the military
and the economy.
J. Do you think that the Mt. Kumgang tours will help to change the attitudes of North Korean people?
Asked whether the Mt. Kumgang tours would be helpful in changing the
attitudes of North Korean people, most respondents showed a positive response:
56.9% of the total respondents replied in the affirmative. Most notably,
the non-visitors showed a 52.5% rate in the affirmative, which is relatively
high. Moreover, 61.3% of the Mt. Kumgang visitors said "yes"
to the question, as expected. In contrast, 28.6% of the Mt. Kumgang visitors
and 42.1% of the non-visitors said that the Mt. Kumgang tour would not
greatly influence the ideas of the North Korean people because they were
strongly controlled by rigid ideological training.
To this question, the specialist group showed the highest rate of affirmative
answers. A total of 66.5% of the specialist group said "yes"
to the question, while only 19.3% replied in the negative. When compared
with others, the answer of the experts' group was remarkable.
Questions about the influence of the Mt. Kumgang project on exchanges between the two Koreas (Comparison by the political and socio-demographic variables)
K. Which political parties do you support? Do you think that the Mt. Kumgang project has contributed to exchange between the two Koreas? (asked only ordinary citizens)
The survey found that the respondents' evaluation of the Mt. Kumgang project differed according to their political party preferences. National Congress for New Politics (NCNP) supporters showed a relatively higher rate of affirmative answers than supporters of other parties, while the rate of affirmative answers of those who don't support any political parties was much higher than that of the ruling party, NCNP supporters. It is interesting that the opposition party, Grand National Party (GNP) supporters' rate of affirmative answers was higher than that of the ruling coalition party, United Liberal Democrats (ULD) supporters. A total of 55.4% of the ULD supporters replied in the affirmative, while 60.7% of the GNP supporters answered affirmatively regarding the Mt. Kumgang project. On the other hand, more GNP supporters showed expected negative attitudes toward the Mt. Kumgang project than the ULD supporters, who answered that it was difficult to evaluate. It is also interesting that the survey found that only 5.2% of those who don't support any political party replied in the negative to the question.
L. Do you think that the Mt. Kumgang project contributes to exchange between the two Koreas? (Asked of all) - Classified according to the level of education of the respondents.
The survey classified the answers according to the level of education
of the respondents. As mentioned above, most respondents very affirmatively
evaluate effects of the Mt. Kumgang project. Nevertheless, the survey
showed contrast among respondents according to their levels of education.
The more educated the respondents, the more affirmative their answers.
A total of 69.5% of university graduates or above answered "yes"
to the question, while 61.8% of the high school graduates or below and
50.9% of the middle school graduates or below replied in the affirmative.
The 69.5% representing the university graduates or over is almost the
same as the 68.5% representing the specialist group, yet they showed difference
regarding the evaluation on the contribution of the Mt. Kumgang project.
Only 10.5% of specialist group said that the Mt. Kumgang project didn't
contribute to the exchange between the two Koreas, while almost 20% of
the ordinary citizens replied in the negative regardless of their level
of education.
M. Do you think that the Mt. Kumgang project contribute to the exchange between the two Koreas? (Asked of all) - Classified according to age
The survey classified the answers according to the respondents' ages. From those in their thirties to those in their fifties show almost the same rate of affirmative answers. Those in their sixties showed the highest rate of affirmative answers, while those in their twenties were the most negative. A total of 34.4% of those in their twenties replied in the negative to the question, the highest among the respondents, and the rate of negative answers decreases with the increase in age. Overall, the survey found that the older the respondents were, the more affirmative attitudes they had.
N. Do you think that the Mt. Kumgang project contributes to the exchange between the two Koreas? (Asked of all) - Classified according to the respondents' occupations.
The survey classified the answers according to the respondents¤£occupations.
Almost 80% of the professionals replied in the affirmative and office
workers and self-employed persons also showed relatively high affirmative
attitudes.
The most negative group was students. Only 47.5%, less than half of the
students said that the Mt. Kumgang project had a positive influence on
exchanges between the two Koreas. Compared with the other groups, this
is a relatively low percentage. Totals of 68.5% of the specialist group,
53.5% of the non-visitors and 62.7% of the ordinary citizens replied in
the affirmative. Furthermore, 35.9% of the students said that the Mt.
Kumgang project didn't contribute at all to exchanges between the two
Koreas, indicating that they have the most negative attitude regarding
the Mt. Kumgang project.
O. Do you think that the Mt. Kumgang project contributes to exchanges between the two Koreas? (Asked of all) - Classified according to the existence of relatives in North Korea
The survey wanted to find out whether the existence of relatives in North
Korea had an influence on the respondents' evaluation of the Mt. Kumgang
project. A total of 66.8% of those who had relatives in North Korea replied
in the affirmative, relatively higher than the 62.2% of those who did
not have relatives in North Korea.
But the survey data satisfies within the significance level (p) 0.05,
this difference does not have any statistical meanings. Thus, having relatives
in North Korea did not influence the respondent' evaluation of the Mt.
Kumgang project.
P. Do you think that the Mt. Kumgang project contributes to exchanges between the two Koreas? (Asked of all) - Classified according to gender
The survey classified the answers according to the gender of the respondents.
The rate of affirmative answers from the male respondents was 10% higher
than that of the female respondents. In contrast, female respondents were
relatively negative regarding the Mt. Kumgang project.
Q. Do you think that the Mt. Kumgang project contributes to the exchange between the two Koreas? (Asked of all) - Classified according to residence
The survey classified the answers according to the respondents' place
of residence. It reveals that the place of residence has an obvious influence
on the respondents' evaluation of the Mt. Kumgang project. A total of
66.9% of those who reside in large cities said that the Mt. Kumgang project
contributed to exchanges between the two Koreas, while the rate decreased
to 59.8% among those who reside in small-to-medium-sized cities and to
53.3% among those who live in towns.
On the contrary, the rate of negative answers was almost the same as those
who lived in small-to-medium-sized cities and towns, but among large city
residents it was relatively low.
SUMMARY OF THE SURVEY
Overall, the survey found that the Korean people are favorable to the Mt. Kumgang project. In particular, visitors to Mt. Kumgang were more favorable to the project. They very affirmatively evaluate the contribution of the Mt. Kumgang project to normalization relations between the South and the North including inter-Korean interchange and cooperation and the North Korean people's attitudes.
¤ý Mt. Kumgang visitors said that the Mt. Kumgang project contributed very much to the relations between the two Koreas and to relaxing the confrontational situation on the Korean peninsula by positively influencing exchanges between the two Koreas, changing the hostile attitude of North Korea, increasing national credibility by easing tensions on the Korean peninsula and the early settlement of the crisis caused by the naval clash in the West Sea. In contrast, the non-visitors, though they recognized the affirmative aspects of the Mt. Kumgang project, hesitated to give high marks to the Mt. Kumgang project and its effects. In conclusion, the survey found that whether one had visited Mt. Kumgang or not greatly influenced his or her attitude regarding the significance and effects of the Mt. Kumgang project.
¤ý Though the rate of affirmative answers to the question "Do you think that the Mt. Kumgang tours will help to change the attitudes of North Korean people?" was relatively high among both the Mt. Kumgang visitors and non-visitors, the Mt. Kumgang visitors revealed more hope for the possibility of changing North Korean people's attitudes.
¤ý The survey found that the rate of those taking the Mt. Kumgang tours was much higher among those who had relatives in North Korea, which shows that many people visited Mt. Kumkang because of their yearning for their relatives and their hometowns. But among those who did not have relatives in North Korea, many said that they had visited Mt. Kumgang only for sightseeing or because of the symbolic importance of the visit to North Korea. Most of the Mt. Kumgang visitors said that the tour helped them to understand North Korea, and nearly all of them said that they would like to visit again if given the opportunity or if new sightseeing programs were provided.
¤ý The specialist group also showed affirmative attitudes toward the Mt. Kumgang project. They also said that the project contributed to exchanges between the two Koreas and to the change of the attitude in the North. The rate of affirmative answers to the question "Do you think that the Mt. Kumgang tours will help to change the ideas of the North Korean people?" was the highest among respondents.
¤ý The older, the more educated, males, professionals and large city residents showed a relatively high rate of affirmative answers. In contrast, compared to other respondents, the young, especially the student group showed the most negative attitudes toward the Mt. Kumgang project. Females and town residents also showed a relatively low rate of affirmative answers.
The most obvious result was the great contrast between the visitors and
non-visitors concerning the Mt. Kumgang project. While it appears consistently
in the answers to various questions, it is hard to conclude that there
is a causal relationship between the visit to Mt. Kumgang and one¤£ evaluation
of it. There is a possibility that it is mainly those with positive attitudes
toward the Mt. Kumgang project who then take the Mt. Kumgang tours.
Even allowing for that fact, there is a certain contrast between the visitors'
and the non-visitors' points of view to the Mt. Kumgang project. It is
very clear, consistent and very large, which indicates the great possibility
of the influence of the Mt. Kumgang tours on the visitors' point of view.
Taking the favorable answers of the Mt. Kumgang visitors into consideration,
it could not be denied that the Mt. Kumgang tours influence the visitors'
affirmative answers. In conclusion, the Mt. Kumgang tours provided a good
chance to understand North Korea and they had a considerable influence
the visitors, so that visitors evaluated positively the effect of the
project on the relations between the two Koreas.
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