In a crisis
situation, the National Command Military Authorities (NCMAs) are
involved in the operations of vast military, diplomatic, and intelligence
organisations in order to collect information, assess dangerous
situations accurately, balance political and military imperatives,
consider crisis options wisely, reach and transmit decisions, execute
orders, and take action.1) In general, there
are five sub-systems or mechanisms for crisis management: (a) the
political control and consultation system; (b) the command and control
system of the armed forces; (c) the intelligence and warning/reconnaissance
systems; (d) the communication channel to the adversary; and (e)
crisis action planning procedures. A major task of crisis management
is operating the intelligence and warning/reconnaissance systems.
In order to manage crises, relevant and timely intelligence is essential
for political and military authorities so that they can provide
strategic warning, alert military forces and develop courses of
crisis action. Although the Republic
of Korea (ROK) has its own crisis management system, it depends
heavily on the U.S. for political control and consultation, command
and control of armed forces, intelligence and warning, crisis communication,
and planning crisis contingencies procedures within the framework
of the ROK-U.S. alliance. In particular, the South Korean military
intelligence system is integrated with the intelligence assets of
the U.S. Forces in Korea. The
objective of this study is to examine intelligence and warning/reconnaissance
systems and their implications for South Korea-U.S. combined crisis
management. In the ROK, intelligence for crisis management comes
from various national and military organisations. Moreover, the
ROK and the U.S. have maintained highly integrated intelligence
infrastructures to collect political and military intelligence,
including signals intelligence (SIGINT) and imagery, under the alliance
framework. In addition, the ROK and U.S. military have operated
a Watch Condition (WATCHCON) system for reconnaissance and strategic/tactical
warning in South Korea.
THE ROK INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY
The Development of a National Intelligence Organisation
The Korean Central
Intelligence Agency (KCIA) was officially established as a primary
national intelligence agency by the Central Intelligence Agency
Law on 10 June 1961, immediately after the military coup of General
Park Chung-hee, to function as the central source of security information.
Based on the KCIA Law, its missions were to "supervise and
coordinate both international and domestic intelligence activities
and criminal investigation by all government intelligence agencies,
including that of the military."2)
Although information about the intelligence
agency regarding its organisational structure, number of personnel,
location and budget were classified, based on article V of the KCIA
Law, according to several sources, the structure of KCIA can be
identified as follows: As of the mid-1970s, it was believed to consist
of eight bureaux under two deputy directors for internal and external
affairs. The 1st Bureau was responsible for administrative affairs.
The 2nd and the 3rd Bureaux dealt with domestic propaganda and counter-intelligence.
The 5th Bureau was in charge of domestic political intelligence.
The 6th Bureau dealt with special missions. The 7th Bureau was responsible
for the collection of foreign intelligence. The 8th
and 9th Bureaux were responsible for North Korean affairs, with
the former focused on psychological warfare operations and the latter
with intelligence collection, analysis, and negotiations with North
Korea (When the KCIA was restructured in 1981, the National Unification
Board took over the negotiations mission with North Korea from the
KCIA's 9th Bureau).3) In
December 1980, however, one year after the assassination of President
Park Chung-hee by KCIA director Kim Jae-kyu, President Chun Doo-hwan's
government revised the KCIA law and changed its name to the Agency
for National Security Planning (ANSP). It was redesignated
as the main agency for collecting and processing all domestic and
foreign intelligence, and investigating offences involving insurrection
and military secrets, among others. Moreover, "the requirement
for all other agencies with intelligence-gathering and analysis
functions in their charters to coordinate their activities with
the ANSP was reaffirmed."4) As for the
structure of the ANSP, although it was reorganised several times
during the Chun government, these changes were more about form,
such as bureau names and numbers, than substance. According to a
former U.S. military intelligence officer, James D. Marett, there
were seven bureaux under the First Deputy Director (Internal Affairs)
and Second Deputy Director (External Affairs), Planning and Co-ordination
Office, Inspection and Audit Office, Special City and Provincial
Office. The seven bureaux consisted of the 1st Bureau
(anti-Communist policy), 2nd Bureau (anti-Communist operations),
3rd Bureau (domestic counter-intelligence), 5th Bureau (research
and analysis), 6th Bureau (special operations), 7th Bureau (foreign
intelligence), and 8th Bureau (North Korea).5)
In terms of the co-ordination of intelligence
among several intelligence agencies the ANSP was the central agency
to control and co-ordinate almost all intelligence related to national
security. In 1981, a Consultative Council on Intelligence Co-ordination
was established within the ANSP by the ANSP Law. The Consultative
Council on Intelligence Co-ordination consisted of a Main Council
and a Working-Level Council. The Main Council was chaired by the
ANSP director and its members included the Ministers of Foreign
Affairs, Home Affairs, Justice, National Defense, and Culture and
Information and other members appointed by the chairman. The Working-Level
Council was chaired by the deputy director of ANSP and its members
included each ministries'director of bureau and the director of
the Korea Defense Intelligence Agency (KDIA). Its missions
were the planning and implementation of national intelligence policy,
intelligence analysis, co-ordination and the oversight of intelligence
operations.66)) Since
the inauguration of Kim Dae-jung administration in 1998, the ANSP
has initiated a number of reforms. It abolished several units for
internal affairs and placed increasing emphasis on gathering overseas
information. It also reduced its staff to make the agency leaner
and more effective. Then on 22 January 1999, the agency was renamed
the National Intelligence Service (NIS). In the NIS, the First Deputy
Director is in charge of international affiars and the Second Deputy
Director is in charge of domestic affairs. Although
the NIS is not directly in charge of military intelligence, which
is critical for crisis management in South Korea, it can be assumed
that it has played an important role in crisis management. Its influence
on crisis management is derived from three sources. First, from
its inception, it has dominated in intelligence gathering and analysis
regarding North Korea, through covert operations, signal intelligence
activities, information-gathering in foreign countries and liaison
activities. As a result, particularly when dealing
with North Korea during a crisis, it is in an important position
to provide information, advice, and assessment to the political
and military leaders.7) Secondly, the NIS has
extensive powers of investigation regarding subversive operations
including North Korean activities. Moreover, it is responsible for
anti-terror operations. Especially during the 1980s, when North
Korea intensified acts of terrorism against South Korea, the ANSP
was directly involved in providing information and in investigating
the incidents. For example, during the Rangoon bombing incident
in 1983 and the KAL bombing incident in 1987, the ANSP dispatched
agents to investigate the incidents on the ground. In
addition, during the hijacking of a civilian Chinese airliner to
South Korea in May 1983, although there was some tension between
ANSP and the military, the director of the ANSP, Loh Shin-Young,
went to the Ministry of National Defense (MND) and controlled and
commanded the MND in order to deal with the incident.8)
Finally, due to its direct accountability to the President, the
NIS actively participates in crisis management procedures.
Military Intelligence Organisations
The central organisation of military
intelligence under the Minister of National Defense is the Korea
Defense Intelligence Agency (KDIA) which was established in October
1981. Until then, there was the Intelligence Bureau
in the JCS.9) The KDIA consists
of the Planning Security Office, the Foreign Intelligence Office,
and the Intelligence Integration Office.10)
The major missions of the KDIA are: the collection, analysis, production
and distribution of military intelligence, the supervision and control
of each service's intelligence units, and the dispatch of military
attaches to overseas embassies in order to gather foreign military
information, etc. It also co-operates with the intelligence
organisations of the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command and U.S. Forces
Korea.11) Under the KDIA, there are two functional
intelligence units: the 9125th Unit and the Defense Intelligence
Command (DIC). The 9125th Unit was established based
on the ROK-U.S. agreement of 10 January 1956. It co-operates with
the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) and the U.S. 501st Military
Intelligence Group to produce signal intelligence (SIGINT).12) The DIC is responsible for North Korean intelligence.
In addition, the Defense Security Command (DSC), which merged the
Army Security Command, the Navy Security Unit, and the Air Force
Office of Special Investigations, was officially activated in October
1977. The DSC is responsible for counter-intelligence,
counter-espionage, internal security responsibilities and military
intelligence gathering within the armed forces.13)
In addition, there are several military organisations included:
the Army Intelligence Command, and intelligence sections in the
Headquarters of the Army (G2), the Navy (N2) and the Air Force (A2).
ROK-U.S. INTELLIGENCE CO-OPERATION
Since the KCIA was established
in 1961, the KCIA/ANSP/NIS have maintained close relations with
the CIA in order to exchange considerable amounts of information
on matters of national security, including information on North
Korea. In addition to close co-operation on political
intelligence, the ROK and the U.S. co-operate closely to share large
amounts of military intelligence focusing on North Korea. Furthermore,
similar to the command and control arrangement, both countries maintain
a combined intelligence system under the CFC.14)
The central organisation of the ROK-U.S. combined military intelligence
system is the ROK-U.S. Combined Intelligence Operations Center (CIOC),
operated by the Intelligence Division (C2) of CFC. The CIOC consists
of the ROK-U.S. Combined Photographic Interpretation Center, the
Combined Indications and Warning Center, and the Special Mission
Unit. The KDIA and the army, navy and air force's intelligence units
are closely linked to CIOC for the exchange of information. Externally,
the 2nd U.S. Infantry Division, the 501st U.S. Military
Intelligence (MI) Brigade, the U.S. Pacific Air Force (PACAF) Command,
the U.S. 9th Strategic Reconnaissance Wing under the Strategic Air
Command (SAC) and the U.S. NSA are also linked to CIOC.15)
According to a
National Security Archives source acquired through the Freedom of
Information Act; "subordinate to the U.S. Army Intelligence
and Security Command (ISCOM), the U.S. 501st MI Group exercises
administrative control over INSCOM units in Korea and provides intelligence
and security support to Headquarters, Eighth U.S. Army throughout
Korea."16) It is responsible
for human intelligence, counter-intelligence, signal intelligence
(SIGINT) and communication security (COMSEC) in South Korea. The
501st MI Brigade consists of four battalions: the 3rd MI Battalion,
the 524th MI Battalion, the 532nd MI Battalion, and the 751st MI
Battalion.17) Moreover, the Theater Air Control Center's (TACC), the
Korea-Combat Operation Intelligence Center (K-COIC) and the Korea
Intelligence Support System (KISS) are linked to CIOC.18) According to U.S. Rear Admiral Jack Barrett and Ronald
D. McLaurin, "the hardened Tactical Air Control Center (TACC)
at Osan is designed for combined control of ROKAF and USAF aircraft
and the Center's OV-10 tactical control aircraft."19)
The TACC is the central organisation for the Air Force's C4I system
and the Korea Air Defense Ground Environment System (KADGE system).
It also operates the Master Control and Reporting
Center (MCRC) and office of intelligence collection. Various reconnaissance
aircraft has used Osan for SIGINT collection including U-2 and SR-71s.20) The K-COIC, which is linked through an underground
tunnel with the TACC, gathers intelligence from the ROK-U.S. Air
Force Intelligence Collection Units and two Special Mission Units,
and provides intelligence to CFC and operational units. The
KISS, which is operated by the main and reserve command posts, provides
intelligence to ROK and U.S. forces.21)
In addition to these organisations,
several U.S. military intelligence organisations coordinate with
the ROK. There are several air force intelligence organisations
in South Korea. The units of Electronic Security Command (ESC) at
the U.S. 7th Air Force base at Osan conduct a cryptographic, cryptanalytic
and electronic warfare mission. Under the 7th Air Force, there is
a counter-intelligence unit, OSI. Detachment 2 of the 9th Strategic
Reconnaissance Wing under the SAC operates SR-71 and U-2 strategic
reconnaissance aircraft from Osan air base. Detachment
32 of the Air Force Special Activities Center (AFSAC) at Yongsan
performs the "debriefing of emigres, refugees, and defectors
and the collection of intelligence through clandestine HUMINT operations."22) As for the naval intelligence organisation,
there is the Naval Security Group Activity which is subordinate
to the Naval Security Group Command (NSGC) operated in order to
carry out signals intelligence and communications security at Pyongtaek.
Moreover, Company G of the Marine Support Battalion
at Pyongtaek provides Marine Corps participation in NSGC activities.23)
WARNING/RECONNAISSANCE SYSTEM
Watch Condition (WATCHCON)
The process of changing the reconnaissance
posture for strategic and tactical warning of attack operated by
ROK and U.S. military forces is called the WATCHCON system. There
are about 180 unusual North Korean military movements on the "Identity
and Warning Lists"which are intensively monitored, based on
the WATCHCON levels. The Watch Condition hierarchy is characterised
by four stages: WATCHCON 4 (normal peacetime position), WATCHCON
3 (important indications of threat), WATCHCON 2 (vital indications
of threat), and WATCHCON 1 (wartime situation). The
WATCHCON is normally raised by the agreement of ROK and U.S. military
intelligence authorities.24) Increasing
the WATCHCON status of ROK-U.S. forces would obviously depend on
the nature of threats determined by changes in the 'Identity and
Warning Lists' During a condition of increased South and North Korean
confrontation, "intelligence-collection resources
such as COMINT and ELINT would be shifted from long-range general
information to an early warning function, either strategic or tactical
depending on the particular collection system."25)
To be precise, when WATCHCON is raised in a time of crisis, intelligence-collection
activities are intensively increased through the operation of spy
satellites and aircraft reconnaissance, radio listening ports, signal
interception around North Korea and near the DMZ. At the same time,
collected information is analysed and distributed to the NCMAs and
operational commanders who needed it. In this sense, there is a
direct relationship between the reconnaissance/ warning system (WATCHCON)
on the one hand, and the alerting procedure (DEFCON) on the other.
For example, the ROK-U.S. issued WATCHCON
1 from 19 February to 17 March 1982, in response to North Korean
Air Force training and bombers deployment. WATCHCON 3 was issued
respectively in the wake of North Korean nuclear problem in the
spring of 1994, and Air Force training and aircraft deployment in
October-November 1995. WATCHCON 2 was issued on 5 April 1996 after
repeated intrusions by the North Korean army into the Panmunjom
area. A WATCHCON was also issued 15 June 1999 at the
time of the naval conflict in the West Sea.26)
Reconnaissance Capabilities of the ROK-U.S. Combined Intelligence
System
There are three main sources of
intelligence collection: Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) (which can
be divided into Communications Intelligence (COMINT) and Electronic
Intelligence (ELINT)), imagery and Human Intelligence (HUMINT).
Except HUMINT, the ROK relies heavily on the U.S. SIGINT and imaging
collection systems during peacetime and crisis-time on the Korean
peninsula. The air reconnaissance systems that operate in peacetime
represent 40% of all U.S. world-wide systems and 70% of the assets
of Pacific Command (PACOM), flying 10,000 hours per year around
the Korean peninsula. Using these intelligence systems,
ROK and U.S. intelligence agencies monitor the North Korean area
and operate an early warning system on a twenty-four hour basis.27) As
far as the capability of ground-based signal intelligence (SIGINT)
collection is concerned, "the Taegu facility, run for the NSA
by the Bendix Field Engineering Group, is equipped with a Pusher
HF antenna and targeted against communications in China, North Korea,
and Vietnam."28) In addition, the 751st
Military Intelligence Battalion (formerly the U.S. Army Field Station
Korea, also known as a Zoeckler Station) which is located at Camp
Humphreys, An Jung Ri, Pyongtaek, is responsible for providing strategic
intelligence support to national-level agencies throughout the Asia-Pacific
region including North Korea. It operates Detachment C (a remote
unmanned TRD-15 antenna array) and three forward SIGINT collection
Detachments (J, K, L) which are remote Tracechain sites situated
near the DMZ. The three forward collection sites are situated as
follows: Detachment J (at Koryo Mountain on the island of Gangwha,
75 kilometres northwest of Seoul and 5 kilometres from the Han Estuary
Neutral Zone), Detachment K (on Ganak Mountain, 10 kilometres from
the DMZ), and Detachment L (on Yaweol Mountain, 108
kilometres north of Seoul and within 1,500 meters of the DMZ). These
installations focus on surveillance, observation and the interception
of North Korean COMINT and ELINT.29)
With respect to airborne SIGINT collection,
the SR-71 and U-2 aircraft reconnaissance systems are operated around
the world and on the Korean peninsula. From Osan air
base, SENIOR SPEAR U-2Rs carries out OLYMPIC GAME missions for the
collection of North Korean and Chinese COMINT, "with the intercepted
communica-tions being downlinked to an Electronic Security Command
unit at Osan."30) It also
provides photographic intelligence on North Korea. The ROK also
operates the RF-4C reconnaissance aircraft, but it covers an area
of only 40 km north of the DMZ.31) As
regards naval sources for SIGINT in PACOM, the Joint Intelligence
Center, Pacific (JICPAC) was established on 3 July 1991 and merged
the Intelligence Center Pacific (IPAC); the 548th Reconnaissance
Technical Group; Task Force 168's Pacific Forward
Area Support Team (PACFAST); the Fleet Ocean Surveillance Information
Center (FOSIC), Pacific; and the Fleet Intelligence Center, Pacific
(FICPAC). Whereas the FOSIC was responsible for providing intelligence
on naval movements in the PACOM region including North Korea, the
FICPAC carried out intelligence collection on naval forces.32) The 548 Reconnaissance Technical
Group, which had subordinate Technical Squadrons at Yokota AB, Japan,
(and possibly at Yongsan AB, South Korea), carried out photo interpretation
of SR-71 missions for PACOM, Pacific Air Forces, and national agencies.33) As
to imagery collection, the U.S. has operated several imaging satellites
KH 8, KH-9, KH-11, LACROSSE‘što collect imagery and monitor a large
number of activities and facilities around the world since 1960.34) The U.S. Pacific Command (PACOM) operates a
ground-based electro-optical satellite tracking system (GEODSS)
to track high attitude satellites at Pulmosan, Daegu. The U.S. PACOM
also has Ground Station and Tactical Early Warning (EW) assets in
South Korea: 14 air defence radar/missile sites across South Korea,
which are integrated with AWACS, naval E-2Cs, and Japan/Okinawa
systems, namely the OV-10 observation aircraft controlled from Osan
Air Base. Major PACOM's Radio Communication Systems in South Korea
includes 3 High Frequency (HF) sites for Voice at the UN Command
at Seoul; Super High Frequency (SHF), Defense Satellite
Communication System (DSCS) Ground Stations at Yongsan AB, Song
So; and AUTODIN (AD) and AUTOSEVCOM (AS) (manual or automatic) Switching
Devices at Daegu.35)
IMPLICATIONS FOR ROK-U.S. COMBINED CRSIS MANAGEMENT
With respect to the intelligence
and warning systems, there are four functions of intelligence during
crises: "(1) pre-crisis information; (2) advance warning of
imminent attack, drastic adverse developments, or foreign policy
opportunities; (3) traditional intelligence support during a crisis;
and (4) postcrisis evaluations of crisis policy and
behavior."36) Within the ROK-U.S. alliance,
there are mechanisms for sharing intelligence in times of peace
and crisis, including information on North Korean military movements
and readiness and strategic and tactical warning. In respect of
pre-crisis intelligence and advance warning, in the 1968 and 1976
crises, the ROK and the U.S. intelligence officials failed both
to assess North Korea's pre-warning and to anticipate its provocations.
In the 1983 Rangoon incident, it was reported that
although an intelligence official of the ANSP raised the issue of
North Korea's warning against President Chun's visit to non-aligned
countries in Asia, South Korean intelligence services failed to
anticipate the North Korean terrorist attack in Rangoon. As regards
traditional intelligence support during crises, intelligence "to
provide timely, reliable information about the onset of a crisis
and its development"37) are crucial to
effective crisis management. There are several principal targets
of intelligence collection in order to assess indications of an
impending North Korean attack. It includes elements
such as the movement of North Korean troops near the DMZ, "increased
radio traffic among combat units, establishment of new headquarters
close to potential conflict areas, unusual changes in the pattern
or amount of railroad or shipping traffic, reinforcement of understrength
military units, . . . or variations in the pattern of radar usage."38) However, although South Korean intelligence
organisations make an effort to collect relevant information, a
substantial amount of high-resolution intelligence about North Korea's
military movements, which could be used for strategic warning, is
collected by the U.S. intelligence resources or U.S.-led combined
ROK-U.S. intelligence units. There
are several other problems related to the activities of the intelligence
services in crisis management. First of all, South Korea's lack
of independent intelligence collection capabilities, especially
in signal intelligence (SIGINT) and imagery, is among the critical
problems in assessing North Korean military movements, in providing
strategic warning intelligence, and in evaluating a situation during
crises. Secondly, given these conditions, South Korea is almost
totally dependent on U.S. military intelligence assets during crises.
Based on information from the KDIA, Yim Bok-Jin, a
member of the ROK National Assembly, revealed that 99% of SIGINT
and 98% of imagery came from U.S. intelligence activities.39) Thirdly, although South Korea and the U.S. have
established regular and systematic intelligence exchanges and crisis-time
intelligence collaboration, South Korean policy makers are not allowed
total access to the kinds of information available in Washington
to American policy makers during crises. Fourthly,
owing to different perceptions of threat and crisis, South Korean
and American intelligence officials interpret data somewhat differently,
and they also differ in their threat assessments and requirements
for decisions on the alert measures (DEFCON) and reconnaissance/warning
posture (WATCHCON) during crises. As a result, these differences
and the respective information analyses can result in friction in
deciding appropriate DEFCON and WATCHCON levels during crises within
the joint alert and warning system.40) Disagreement
about specific DEFCON and WATCHCON levels can harm the credibility
of crisis resolution and the use of military forces. To summarise,
these problems can undermine efforts of crisis management, including
consistent assessments of the situation and co-ordinated and appropriate
military measures within the context of the ROK-U.S. alliance.
CONCLUSION
In a time of crisis, significantly-enhanced
intelligence capabilities are the most vital means for the ROK to
assess North Korea's intentions and military movements, to provide
early strategic warning and to prepare counter-postures in a crisis.
Although the ROK operates several intelligence organisations, due
to a lack of independent intelligence assets and capabilities, the
ROK has depended entirely on the U.S. for the provision of intelligence
and warning/reconnaissance systems including various SIGINT and
imagery intelligence assets both in peacetime and crisis-time. While several intelligence and warning systems are jointly
operated by the ROK and the U.S. and are tightly integrated into
a ROK-U.S. C4I system, the ROK still needs U.S. agreement in order
to increase a WATCHCON level. On the whole, as for South Korea,
consultation and co-ordination with the U.S. for intelligence and
warning activities in crisis management are indispensable.41) |