Since the report by U.S. North
Korea policy coordinator, William Perry, many experts on North Korea's
military confrontations including missile launches and the naval
confrontation between the two Koreas in the West Sea in 1999 are
a thing of the past. However, this could be premature. I say this
as a native North Korean who was educated in the anti-South Korea/anti-U.S.
environment of the Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il dictatorships. Moreover,
I served in the North Korean People's Army from the age of twenty
until the day I defected to South Korea in 1995. The following is
an assessment of the hermit kingdom's unpredictable and hostile
behavior, faced on 50 years of experiences.
CONDITIONS FOR WAGING A WAR
Pyongyang would never abandon its
intentions to "liberate" South Korea unless the Kim Jong-il
regime comes to an end. North Korea is still sure of the fact that
several East-European countries, including East Germany and Hungary,
collapsed because they were politically and economically dependent
on the Soviet Union and because they were too much dependent on
Moscow for their military systems and defense industries. Thus,
North Korea considers military independence as the most crucial
objective for sustaining its regime and for reunifying the Korean
peninsula. The late Kim Il-sung believed that North Korea was defeated
in the 1950 Korean War, because it had neither its own independent
military industry, nor a strong military force. Therefore, he prioritized
the establishment of an independent self-defense system. Now, North
Korea is endeavoring to achieve eternal reunification of the Korean
peninsula through military force under the direction of Kim Jong-il,
the son of Kim Il-sung.
North
Korea believes that only military mean can accomplish the reunification.
Moreover, the Workers' Party, the top political institution of North
Korea, has persuaded the North Korean people to invade South Korea
for imminent reunification, through unrealistic propaganda. However,
thanks to the rigid social controls system and continuous political
indoctrination, people in the North Korea believe that South Korea
is a colony of U.S. imperialists where only a few capitalist are
living well, while most others live in poverty. People in Noth Korea
think that in order to help their miserable South Korean comrades,
they must drive the U.S. Army from Korean peninsula, replacing it
with an independent government. Against this backdrop, the North
Korean regime has presented three justifications for waging war:
First, in the event of a popular revolution in South Korea. Second,
in the event of withdrawal of the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) or the
breakout of World War III in a third region, Finally, if U.S. Forces
were to take military action against any part of North Korea.
North Korea considers the existence
of the U.S. Forces in South Korea and the military alliance between
South Korea and the U.S. as the greatest obstacle to an invasion
of South Korea. Consequently, it cannot risk waging a reckless war.
Currently North Korea is doing its best to drive the U.S. Forces
out of South Korea, resorting to various measures to sway both world
opinion and U.S. domestic opinion in favor of a U.S. pullout.
First, North Korea has long attemped
to force withdrawal of the USFK by taking direct military actions
toward U.S. troops and threatening the lives of U.S. soldiers: the
1968 seizure of the USS Pueblo, the 1969 downing of the EC-121 U.S.
reconnaissance place off, the axe murders of two U.S. soldiers at
Panmunjom in 1976 and the shooting down of a U.S. Army helicopter
in 1993. At the time of the 1968 the USS Pueblo Incident, North
Korea practically declared war against the U.S., employing a tit-for-tat
strategy. In 1994 when the U.S. threatened to attack the Yongbyon
nuclear facility in North Korea, the North was ready to wage a total
war against the U.S., declaring a quasi-state of war in North Korea:
front corps, including the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th Army Corps, were
fully prepared to immediate offense position; every North Korean
War Council was summoned to prepare for total war.
Second,
North Korea is trying to weaken the legitimacy of the U.S. Forces
in Korean peninsula, by directly negotiating with the U.S. North
Korea has argued for the substitution of the Armistice Agreement
with a U.S.-North Korea peace treaty. In preparation, the regime
has tried to abolish the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission
under the Military Armistice Commission. As a result, in 1990 North
Korea evicted the representatives in the United and Poland, and
in 1994 the Chinese representatives in the United Nations Forces.
Meanwhile, in Armistice Commission, the withdrew its delegates from
the Military Armistice Agreement. This strategy by North Korea reminds
us of the 1973 U.S.-Vietnam Paris Agreement, which led to the pullout
of U.S. troops from Vietnam and the communization of Vietnam.
Third, North Korea has incited the
South Korean people to expel the U.S. Forces. North Korea has propagandized
that South Korea is nothing but a puppet of the U.S. Furthermore,
North Korea has instigated the South Korean people to feel antipathy
against the U.S., describing the U.S. as a foreign invader who is
hindering the reunification of the Korean peninsula. Since Kim Jong-il
took over in promoting Kim Il-sung's obsession with North Korea's
reunification policy by military means, he has justified the strengthening
of North Korean forces as a vanguard for reunification. He seems
convinced that tight control of the military is the key to sustaining
his regime as well as to achieving reunification.
CONING TO THE THRONE
Since the 1960s, Kim Jong-il has
held a part of his father's power, consolidating his control over
the military from the late 1960s to the early 1970s. In 1967, Kim
Il-sung purged all who were against him, giving his son, Kim Jong-il
control over the military. Among the purged high-level officers,
there is Kim Chang-man, chief of the Propaganda and Agitation Department
under Central Committee of Workers's Party (CCWP), who opposed to
Kim Jong-il's succession. Also, in 1969 Kim Il-sung expelled many
high-ranking military officers. In the 4th plenary session of the
4th-term the CCWP Central Military Committee, Kim Il-sung laid full
blame on them for the counter-revolutionaries: senior general (four-star)*
Kim Chang-bong, the National Defense Minister; senior general Hug
Bong-hak, head of the General Political Bureau of the People's Army;
general (three-star) Kim Yang-chun, commander of the 7th Army Corps;
general Yu Chang-gun, the Navy Commander; and his partisan comrades
during the Korean War. Kim Il-sung order them to be shot or to be
held in concentration camps for life, thus ensuring the Kim Jong-il's
Kim Il-sung assigned senior general Oh Jin-u, the then head of the
General Political Bureau of the People's Army, for minister of the
People's Armed Forces as well as head of the General Political Bureau
of the People's Army. With the help of senior general Oh Jin-u,
Kim Jong-il could persuade other military generals to pledge their
loyalty to him. From the mid-1970s, Kim Jong-il started to work
actively to take over the military. At first, he employed a carrot
strategy, promoting the first generation veterans to high-ranking
government posts and giving them tremendous material benefits. He
extended particular consideration to Oh Jin-u, minister of the People's
Armed Forces and head of the General Political Bureau of the People's
Army.
Kim Jong-il has spent a
great deal of U.S. currency to buy lavish gifts for the military
high-ranking officers, on his birthday, his father's birthday, and
on New Year's day. Gifts include color TV sets, refrigerators, sewing
machines, cassette recorders, Swiss Omega watches, and expensive
French cognac as well as expensive clothing and foods, which can
rarely be purchased by ordinary North Koreans. Since high-ranking
officers receive such gifts on each celebration day, they all now
own two or three color TV sets, as well as several gold watches
inscribed with name of Kim Il-sung.
Surprisingly,
in the mid-1980s, Kim Jong-il presented Mercedes Benz 280s to his
military aides as gifts, and had the license plates registered with
the numbers 2, 1 and 6, the date of his birthday. Those receiving
the automobiles were senior general Oh Jin-u; senior general Oh-Guk-ryol,
chief fo the General Staff of the People's Army; general Jang Sung-woo,
chief of the Reconnaissance Bureau; senior general Kim Kwang-jin,
vice minister of the People's Armed Forces; general Kim Young-chun,
chief fo Operations Bureau; and senior colonel Kim Chang-sung, deputy
chief of External Business Affairs Bureau (current Chief Secretary
of Kim Jong-il). Moreover, these generals have enjoyed weekend sprees
including party girls, at Kim Jong-il's special guest house, and
have gone hunting and horseback-riding. When these activities were
criticized, Kim Jong-il invited only the corps commanders and the
members of corp's politburo and above, and held parties only on
April 25, the founding anniversary of the People's Army, and on
New Year's day. In 1992, Kim Jong-il promoted several thousand military
officers, including generals, to a higher rank in order to win their
favor and loyalty. As a result, a huge number became generals overnight.
In fact, some military officers in the defense ministry have sneered
at the move, calling it "playing soldiers in kindergarten."
Kim Jong-il has fully utilized the
mass media in the People's Army to control the military. In particular,
senior general Lee Yong-mu, chief of the General Political Bureau
of the People's Army; lieutenant general (two-star) Yun Chi-ho,
deputy chief of the General Political Bureau; and major general
(one-star) Kim Eung-do, chief of Propaganda and Agitation Department
under the Central Committee of Worker's Party, have been greatly
instrumental in Kim Jong-il's military takeover. They have helped
to deify Kim Jong-il through movies, concerts, and mass media including
the chosun Inminkun, an organ of the People's Army, and have issued
slogans calling him "the most honorable general," and
"an invincible general."
Moreover,
since 1975 they have ordered the North Korean people to hang pictures
if Kim Jong-il on the walls of every office and military barracks.
In the same vein, Oh Jim-u, Kim Kwang-jin, Lee Bong-won (deputy
chief of the General Political Bureau in charge of propaganda and
agitation) were asked to write books to promote Kim Jong-il as "a
man of genius in the military" and to induce the North Korean
people to study them in public. Futhermore, they forced high-ranking
military officers to write letters pledging loyalty to Kim Jong-il
and to give public performances relating to the veneration of Kim
Jong-il.
Since the 1980s, the
entire military agenda had to first be reported to Kim Jong-il instead
of Kim Il-sung, changing the direct reporting system. This has been
greatly contributory to Kim Jong-il's control of the military, and
those who break the reporting procedure have been severly punished.
With the changed reporting system, Kim Il-sung seemed to have handed
over the military supreme power to his son. Even an airplane could
not make a flight without Kim Jong-il's approval. For example, when
a foreign country's defense minister visited North Korea and wanted
to use a helicopter to travel, he needed a Kim Jong-il's signature.
The External Business Affairs Bureau in the Ministry of the People's
Armed Forces had to ask Kim Jong-il to ratify as many as 130 agendas
in a year.
With "Military-oriented
Thought" in North Korea, the military has played the most important
role in every field, including public administration and economy,
since 1998. The military now runs major businesses such as Hwanghae
Refinery and cooperative farms.
Furthermore,
some military officers have the personnel management rights in cooperative
farms. In sum, North Korea has become a country of military tyranny.
PREPARATIONS FOR WAR
For some time, North Korea has
invested a great amount of money on research and development projects
to produce weapons of mass destruction including nuclear arms. Since
nuclear testing by the super powers has thrived in the 1960s, North
Korea could justify its possession of weapons of mass destruction,
on the pretext that surrounding countries, the Soviet Union and
China, already had nuclear arms, and that Japan had a plan to develop
them. North Korea's fear of a war with the U.S. has especially influenced
it to develop nuclear arms and chemical weapons.
In
the 1960s, North Korea established large-scale nuclear facilities
in Bungang district in North Pyongan Province, importing a Russian
in nuclear reactor for the purpose of research and for training
nuclear experts. In the 1970s, North Korea concentrated on a research
relating to the refining and processing of nuclear materials, established
a 5MW nuclear reactor, and began operating several uranium refinery
facilities. Subsequently, North Korea set about establishing a 200MW
nuclear power plant in Taechon as well as a large-scale nuclear
reprocessing facility in Yongbyon. Thus, in the 1990s, North Korea
has independently dealt with the entire procedure, from procurement
of nuclear materials to reprocessing of nuclear wastes. Regarding
nuclear arms, only Kim Jong-il and several engineers involved in
the project know whether North Korea possesses nuclear arms or not.
Although I cannot personally say that North Korea has nuclear arms,
people in the North do surmise that North Korea might have one or
two powerful nuclear bombs.
North
Korea has developed and produced various kinds of biochemical weapons
since the 1960s. The Kunjin Research Center under the General Rear
Services Bureau of the Ministry of the People's Armed Forces has
experimented with biochemical weapons and a defense system. Currently
it is reported that North Korea has various biochemical weapons
(including nerve, blood, choking, and blister agents) and their
means of delivery.
North Korea
has recently accelerated the development of long-range missile,
since it wants the ability for direct attack against not only Okinawa
in Japan but also the U.S. mainland, with nuclear and chemical warheads.
Kim Jong-il assigned Yon Hyong-muk, chairman of the Metal and Machine
Industry Commission of the CCWP, to develop a missile similar to
the Soviet Union's Scud-B missile. At the same time, he urged the
North Korean military industries to develop their own rocket system,
pointing out that since China and the Soviet Union were very reluctant
to help North Korea to strengthen its military power, North Korea
should independently develop its own rocket system including rocket
speed. Moreover, Kim Jong-il assigned the same project to the 2nd
Natural Science Institute, arguing that if North Korea has the capability
to develop advanced military scientists had planned to develop the
Scud-B missile by April 15 (Kim Il-sung's birthday), 1981. However,
the second test-launch of the first missile model ended in failure.
Finally, the successful third test in April, 1982 spearheaded North
Korea's independent missile product. North Korea named the model
(a type of Scud-B missile) as Hwasong (Mars). Produced and deployed
since 1985, it has a range of 250~500km. Later, Kim Jong-il also
ordered the 2nd Natural Science Institute to develop an intermediate-range
missile, having a range of 1500km. The intermediate-range missile,
called Hwasong-5 by North Korea, as known as Rodong-1 outside. There
was a test-launch in October, 1989. The missile launched in August,
1998 was Hwasong-6 missile, which North Korea has claimed as an
artificial satellite, however the U.S. has called it the Taepodong-1
missile. In June, 1993, deputy marshal Kim Kwang-jin, vice minister
of the People's Armed Forces told me that North Korea could develop
the missile with a range fo 4000~5000km in a near future. There
are several missile engine factories and assembly plants in North
Korea: a laboratory for research and development, with the code-name
"January 18th Machinery Factory" in Kangam-ri, and assembly
factories such as "Pyongyang Pig Factory" and "Pyongyang
Mangyongdae Yakjin Machinery Factory." From the 1980s, the
Military Construction Bureau of the People's Armed Forces Ministry
has established missile-launching bases all over the North Korean
territory.
Regarding weapons
of mass destruction, North Korea has outlined targets. The first
would be U.S. soldiers and military bases in South Korea and Japan.
North Korea's strategy is based on the following belief: the U.S.,
reacting to heavy U.S. casualties, had proposed the 1953 Korean
Armistice Agreement and had initiated troop withdrawals in the final
stage of Vietnam War. Furthermore, North Korea concluded that Iraq's
loss to the U.S. in the Gulf War resulted from its failure to produce
heavy casualties among United Nations soldiers stationed at U.S.-directed
Saudi military bases. Thus, the annihilation of U.S. soldiers deployed
on the Korean peninsula is a vital North Korean strategy to be undertaken
early on. Moreover, the North would prioritize on U.S. military
bases in Okinawa, Guam, and South Korea to destroy military supply
lines.
The second target would
then be defense industries and military bases in Japan, in order
to prevent South Korea from being supplied with weapons, ammunition,
other battle equipment, and soldiers from Japan.
The
third target would be the U.S. mainland, including Alaska, which
has not been attacked for the last 100 years. Such an attack would
occur in the wake of imminent North Korean defeat, to destroy the
U.S. with nuclear or biological warheads.
The
fourth target is major South Korean cities such as Seoul, Inchon,
Taejon, and Ulasn, having a large population or military facilities.
When I visited several underground facilities of the North Korean
Anti-aircraft command in 1988, I witnessed that North Korea had
developed plans to attack the South Korean cities with intermediate-range
missiles and jet fighters.
Regardless
of the government's recent decision to stop missile test-launch
after the dialogue with the U.S., heightened economic cooperations,
and cultural exchanges between the two Koreas, the North Korean
military is nonetheless thoroughly prepared for a war.
Kim
Jong-il has stated that the more peaceful gestures that the Workers'
Party extends, the more throughly military officers as well as ordinary
soldiers are to prepare for a war. North Korea argues that a war
comes not from tension but from peace. According to Kim Jong-il's
strategic ideas, the North Korean military should be always ready
for any type of war. Although, since 1995, two or three million
grave famines, the North Korean defector, the military. According
to a testimony of a North Korean defector, the North Korean military
spent several million U.S. dollars to install the computer communication
system to command military operations through almost every military
units including the troops along the front-line, the Navy and the
Air Force commands. Besides, the North Korean military mechanized
every piece of artillery to increase mobility, and constructed innumerable
tactical roads. Fourteen artillery regiments have been organized
by female soldiers, and the East Sea Command has been newly Established.
In practice, North Korea could independently conduct a war, without
aid from China or Russia. The North Korean military has 1.2 million
personnel serving in the active forces including 12 infantry corps
which have 100 thousands of rangers. In addition, it has independent
ammunition industries which can produce almost every type of battle
equipment including airplanes, missiles, tanks, armored cars and
ammunition. Even more serious, there are more than 20 thousand tunnels
in which airplanes, ships, thanks and soldiers can be sheltered.
Those tunnels are equipped with anti-nuclear/biochemical weapons
facilities. The tunnels are located in the depth of 200~300 meters
underground and have at least two or three exits. North Korea has
a detailed plan to reduce Seoul to a pile of ashes when war breaks
out. A total of 70% of the military forces have been deployed in
the southern parts of Pyongyang as well as 400 thousands soldiers
are on the border of South Korea. In conclusion, North Korea remains
prepared for a war against South Korea and the U.S.
A SIGN OF INNER-REVOLUTION?
The rumors of a military coup in
North Korea has some merit, even though it could be exaggerated.
Considering the North Korean regime, there is a rare chance for
a coup to be successful. There are three explanations regarding
the rumor of a military coup d' etat: First, some military generals
and officers who had studied in the Soviet Union military academies
and became double agents for the Soviet Union by KGB, could have
tried to subvert the North Korean regime and to establish a pro-Soviet
Union government. Second, confrontations and conflicts among the
North Korean high-ranking military officers might lead to a coup.
Finally, some military corps and divisions commanders were greedy
to earn foreign currency.
After
1985, Kim Jong-il sent many North Korean military officers to the
former Soviet Union and to former East Germany for the purpose of
accelerating its military modernization. Those academies were the
Military Academy of the General Staff of the Soviet Armed Forces,
named after Voroshilov, the Military Academies. The Soviet Union
Defense Ministry helped the North Korean military to establish Mirim
Military Academy (recently, renamed as Kimilsung Military Academy)
to train military operation commanders. About fifty professors graduated
from Mirim Academy established Soviet-sponsored bases, a Satellite
Signal Correspondent military base and the Lamona Air Force base.
While North Korea expected help from
the Soviet Union to modernize and mechanize its military, the Soviet
Union tried to control North Korean through the students. Consequently,
the KGB would bribe North Korean military officers into becoming
spies. North Korean military officers would be severely punished
if they were caught having extra marital-affairs of balck-marketeering.
Many North Korean were solicited by beautiful Russian women, and
the ensuing affairs were photographed by KGB. Threatened by the
KGB with the pictures, North Koreans agreed to spy for the Soviet
Union. Then Soviet Union military academies gave their North Korean
spies excellent grades and evaluations, enabling them to be posted
in high military positions on their return to North Korea. The Soviet
Union has also bribed North Korean military attaches at foreign
embassies. This was revealed by both a KGB agent, who had sold a
list of spies to North Korea after the collapse of the Soviet Union,
and the Security Command of the People's Army who had shadowed the
North Korean Military officers studying in the Soviet Union. Since
1991, North Korea has worked to capture the North Korean spies working
for the Soviet Union. At first, the Security Command simply arrested
those in division-or brigade-commander level, by-passing top-ranking
military officers. However, as interrogations proceed, the security
command has realized the seriousness of the issue and has tried
to purge them all. In 1992 alone, three hundred North Koran military
generals and officers who had studied in the Soviet Union were arrested.
In 1994, the bureau began to arrest top-ranking military officers,
including corps commanders. As far as I know, the following are
among them: General Hong Kye-sung, deputy chief of the General Staff;
lieutenant general Kang Woon-ryong, chief of the 3rd division of
the Operations Bureau; lieutenant general Kim Hak- san, chief of
External Business Affairs Bureau; lieutenant general Kim Jeon-chan,
military attache at the North Korean embassy in the Soviet Union;
Notably, general Hong Kye-sung, deputy chief of the General Staff,
since he was a son-in-law of senior general Chor Hyun, former National
Defense Minister, and since he was deeply trusted by Kim Jong-il.
Lieutenant general Kang Woon-ryong was the first son of Kang Hyun-soo,
incumbent secretary of Pyongyang district of the Workers' Party,
Lieutenant general Kim Hak-san, chief of the External Business Affairs
Bureau was a military attache at the North Korean embassy in Moscow
in 1996. Except for some Air Force officers., most North Korean
military officers who had studied in Soviet Union between 1992 and
1994, were arrested, and either executed or sent to concentration
camps with their families. At that time, Kim Jong-il had secretly
ordered senior general Won Eung-hee, the Security Commander of the
People's Army, not only to get rid of the spies working for the
Soviet Union or China, but also to purge their families, saying
that their crimes were worse than any others. On the other hand,
most of the Air Force officers including Oh Keum-chul, the incumbent
Air Force Commander, survived, since Cho Myong-rok asked Kim Jong-il
to punish only extreme cases and to forgive the rest of them, citing
possible damage to the Air Force combat readiness. Consequently,
a Soviet-backed coup could not have happened due to the early arrests
by Kim Jong-il's aides.
Information
that senior general Oh Guk-ryol, former chief of the General Staff
and rival of Oh Jin-u, was involved in a coup is ungrounded. In
1986 Oh Jin-u, Minister of the People's Armed Forces and chief of
the General Political Bureau, were critically injured in a car accident
on the way back from a party hosted by Kim Jong-il, and were sent
to the Soviet Union Central Hospital. Judging that Oh Jin-u could
no longer work, Kim Jong-il assigned Oh Guk-ryol to act as Minister
of the People's Armed Forces and the chief of the General Political
Bureau. Consequently, Oh Guk-ryol set about reforming the military
according to his own ideas, reducing the roles of the Political
Bureau in the military and coordinating the departments in the Ministry
of the People's Armed Forces. However, several military officeers
of the Oh Jin-u faction including senior general Lee Bong-won, deputy
chief of the General Political Bureau, were against the reforms.
After Oh Jin-u's recovery, See Bong-won reported to him that Oh
Guk-ryol had tried to became suspicious of Oh Guk-ryol. According
to Hwang Jang-yup, former secretary of the Workers' Party, Kim Jong-il
announced to high-ranking offcers on the side of Oh Guk-ryol. Finally,
Kim Jong-il expelled Oh Guk-ryol as well as his followers from the
military, based on the report by Lee Bong-won. As a result, Oh Guk-ryol
was assigned to a sinecure as chief of the Operations Department
of the CCWP, and his followers were forced to retire or resign.
In 1988, at the same time he purged Oh Guk-ryol, Kim Jong-il appears
to have decided to get rid of the Oh Jin-u faction as well. Immediately
after the death of Oh Jin-u, as expected, Kim Jong-il got rid of
every member of the Oh Jin-u group, including senior general Lee
Bong-won, deputy chief of the General Political Bureau. Thus, marshal
Cho Myong-rok, marshal Kim Il-chol, senior general Hyun Chul-hea,
deputy chief of the General Political Bureau; and senior general
Park Jae-kyung, chief of the Publicity Bureau have competed with
one another for power. In conclusion, Kim Jong-il has taken advantage
of those rivalries among high-ranking military officers, to consolidate
military control. Therefore, those power struggles should not be
considered as an attempt at a coup.
Some
military corps and divisions commanders developed a taste for ventures
to earn forign currency, enabling them to buy imported cigarettes
and expensive wines, and to ensure that their sons and daughters
married well. Thus, to earn foreign exchange, they turned a blind
eye to the wrongdoing of the North Korean Special groups who were
earning foreign currency. Often, they even became involved in drug
trafficking. A recent South Korean report about an attempted coup
by the Sixth Corps of the North Korean Army seems to be related
with the conflicts caused by the enthusiastic business of earning
hard currency in the military. The Security Command caught several
high-ranking military officers in the Sixth Corps, each in possession
of 20~50 thousand dollars fo dirty money. In North Korea, individual
possession of gold, dollars, and other foreign currencies is illegal,
and the prepetrator is considered an enemy of state. This is especially
true of high-ranking officers. They are more severely punished of
even purged, since there is a political issue involved, that is,
possession of foreign currencies indicates the intention to defect
or to be prepared for the North Korean regime which prohibited their
earning foreign currencies, saying "Kim Jong-il has ruined
North Korea," "North Korea should be opened and reformed
like China," and "There will come a day when the Kim Jong-il
regime wil fall." However, as far I know, they did not attempt
a coup. Nevertheless, several hundred of them were purged by Kim
Jong-il. He replaced the Sixth Corps with the Seventh Corps. Although
a similar case to the Sixth Corps could happen, it is hardly possible
for the case to develop into a coup d'etat, because the North Korean
regime has double or triple surveillance networks. With the help
of China or Russia, a coup might be successful; however, no North
Korean military officer would attempt it without such help.
THE UNALTERABLE STANCE OF NORTH KOREA
In general, the North Korean military
shows great loyalty to Kim Jong-il, even though it has many intrinsic
problems. Kim Jong-il makes that possible, through exchanging high-ranking
military officers including division and brigade commanders before
they have a change in their beliefs, and selecting new officers
full of loyalty to Kim Jong-il. On the other hand, low-ranking officers
and ordinary soldiers are more loyal to Kim Jong-il than high-ranking
officers, because they have been convinced that they are suffering
from the brutal containment policies of the U.S. and South Korea.
Western countries and South Korea
have confused the North Korean soldiers complaints about their daily
lives, with their antipathy against the U.S. and South Korea. Even
of their complaints lessened, their antipathy against South Korea
remains steadfast. North Korean soldiers consider the U.S. and South
Korea as deadly enemies that must be defeated, since Pyongyang cannot
co-exist with Washington and Seoul. Now, it is expressing a desire
for a thaw in relations, suggestion normalization with the U.S.,
as well as saying that South Korea is its "brethren country".
However, this is only part of a strategy for reunification by revolutionary
means. As long as Kim Jong-il remains in power, it is hardly possible
for the Korean peninsula to be unified peacefully. North Korea is
now trying to revive its economy and to strengthen its military
power at any cost. In conclusion, outside help to sustain the Kim
Jong-il regime will result in consolidation of the current North
Korean dictatorial system, and will further increase the dangerous
possibility that North Korea could invade South Korea. |