Three pieces of legislation aimed
at securing effectiveness of the new set of "Guidelines for
U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation" (NGL: New Guideline) established
on September 23, 1997, were approved by the House of Representatives,
the Lower House of the Japanese Diet, during its regular session
on April 27, 1999. About a month later on May 24, the legislation
was also passed in the House of Councillor, the Upper House of Japan.
There have been a series of debates since the NGL-related legislation
was submitted to the Lower House about a year ago. Nevertheless,
the coalition of three political parties (the Liberal Democratic
Party, the Liberal Party, the New Komeito), which together hold
the majority in the Diet, passed the legislation without any revision,
against challenges from the opposition parties, including the Japanese
Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party. With
the enactment of the NGL-related laws, Japan has successfully laid
the legal foundation for making itself a strong military power,
by consolidation of its alliance with the U.S. and by strengthening
the status and role of the Self-Defense Forces. Accordingly, there
is a growing interest in whether Japan will seek to become a military
power, abandoning the principle of an exclusively defense-oriented
policy. The NGL-related developments are evaluated to have huge
implications in that Japan's future military actions based on this
newly-passed legislation would reshape the security order in Northeast
Asia and could directly affect the security of the Korean peninsula.
This paper examines the contents of, and problems with the NGL-related
laws, as well as their effects on the security order in Northeast
Asia.
ENACTMENT OF THE NGL-RELATED LEGISLATION: BACKGROUND
Development of U.S.-Japan Security Relations1)
The basic framework of the U.S.-Japan
security alliance is the "U.S.-Japan Security Treaty,"
signed and revised in 1952 and 1960, respectively. The Security
Treaty, which was established as part of the containment policy
toward the former Soviet Union during the Cold War era, enabled
mutual cooperation between the U.S. and Japan; the U.S. extended
its nuclear umbrella and security to Japan while Japan provided
a military base for the U.S. Armed Forces. Since 1970, the U.S.-Japan
Security Treaty has routinely been extended and revised. When the
Soviet Union attacked Afghanistan and increased its military capabilities
in the East Asian region in the late 1970s, the U.S. and Japan devised
the "Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation" in
1978, in order to counter the military threat from the Soviets.
The core aspect of the Guidelines is the specification of the "actions
in response to an armed attack against Japan" (Paragraph 1
of Article 5) as stipulated by the Security Treaty; it states that
when there is a small-scale armed attack, Japan is to launch a counterattack
by itself; when it is large, Japan and the U.S. are to launch coordinated
bilateral actions with the dispatch of the U.S. Forces. The purpose
of the U.S. Forces stationed in Japan was also limited "to
contributing to the maintenance of security in Japan and peace in
the Far East." (Article 6) This was a defense mechanism of
the Cold War era, established to counter a possible attack on Japan
by the former Soviet Union.
The Nye Initiative
Since the collapse of the Soviet
Union and the outbreak of the Gulf War, Japan has demonstrated its
potential for making contributions to the international community
in terms of providing military services. This became apparent when
it enacted the so-called PKO laws in order to allow joining U.N.
peacekeeping operations and the dispatching of the Self-Defense
Forces to the Persian Gulf. These developments prompted Joseph S.
Nye Jr., who later became the Assistant Secretary of Defense, to
conclude that the U.S.-Japan security relations at the time could
not left behind, especially given other issues, such as North Korea's
suspected nuclear development and the Taiwan Straits crisis. After
taking office in 1994, Nye thus proposed to redefine and facilitate
new U.S.-Japan security arrangements. Based on the recognition that
the U.S.-Japan security alliance is necessary even in the post-Cold
War era, this proposal, dubbed the Nye Initiative, aims at shifting
the role of the bilateral security alliance from containing the
Soviet Union and defending Japan to establishing peace and security
in the Asia-Pacific region, by reflecting the post-Cold War strategic
situation. Accordingly, in 1995 the U.S. reviewed the East Asian
Strategic Report (EASR), the main strategy of which was to strengthen
and expand the U.S.-Japan security alliance in the Asian region.
Tokyo's positive reaction to Washington's moves naturally led to
bilateral working-level talks between the two countries. Then in
November 1995, Japan decided at the cabinet and the security council
meetings to set the "National Defense Program Outline"
to expand its role as an active architect of the international order.
U.S.-Japan Joint Declaration on Security
The U.S.-Japan Joint Declaration
on Security issued by President Clinton and former Japanese Prime
Minister Hashimoto is the final result of the above-mentioned series
of developments. The U.S. and Japan shared the view that the two
countries's security alliance had to be firmly in place, and functioning
as a stabilizer of the Asia-Pacific region, even after potential
threats from the Soviet Union were eliminated. Accordingly, the
two countries moved to reaffirm the legitimacy of the bilateral
security alliance. Thus, in Tokyo in April 1996, the
leaders of the two countries announced the Joint Declaration for
acting jointly in response to the uncertainty and instability in
the Asia-Pacific region, including the areas surrounding Japan.
They include North Korea's nuclear development and the mounting
tension between China and Taiwan.2) This
Joint Declaration, subtitled "Alliance for the 21st Century,"
is a statement of the plans to strengthen bilateral defense cooperation
based on a common understanding that stability in the Asia-Pacific
region is important to the security and national interest of both
Japan and the U.S. The centerpiece of the Joint Declaration, which
is evaluated to have "redefined" or "reaffirmed"
the two countries' security relationship, can be summarized as the
following: the signing of the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement
(ACSA); reduction of the U.S. base in Okinawa; and the review and
revision of the Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation, which
had been amended in November 1978.
Objectives and Basic Principles of the Revision of Guidelines
Accordingly, on June
26, 1996, the U.S. and Japan reconstituted the Subcommittee for
Defense Cooperation (SDC) under the auspices of the Security Consultative
Committee (SCC)3) to set the objectives and
the basic principles for the review of the guidelines. There were
three basic objectives: to establish more effective bilateral relation
for the two countries' defense cooperation, based on Japan's new
National Defense Program Outline and the U.S.-Japan Joint Declaration
on Security; to provide transparent guidelines for bilateral defense
cooperation in consideration of the changes taking place in the
security environment in the Asia-Pacific region; and to seek policy
guidelines for the facilitation of various programs, including joint
research studies aimed at the building of a more effective foundation
for cooperation. In addition, with regard the basic principles for
the revision, the U.S. and Japan agreed to maintain the rights and
obligations specified in the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty and the
basic framework of the U.S.-Japan alliance, as well as to conduct
all actions within the limitations of Japan's Constitution.
Content of New Defense Guidelines
After conducting several
rounds of talks amid growing concerns of neighboring countries,
the U.S. and Japan announced an interim report in June 1997. At
a ministerial-level security consultation in New York, on September
23 of the same year, the two sides finalized and announced the new
Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation.4)
The new Guidelines specified bilateral
cooperation (a) under normal circumstances, (b) when armed attack
against Japan (contingency in Japan), and (c) under situations in
areas surrounding Japan (contingency in surrounding areas). The
two countries agreed to initiate cooperative measures (as shown
in Table 1) of 40 items per each event.
New Guidelines and Japan's Domestic Laws
The most important aspect of the
new Guidelines is that, in addition to cases of direct attack on
Japan, the U.S. and Japan can launch joint actions in response to
a contingency in the areas surrounding Japan, even when peace in
Japan is under no direct threat. The question is whether Japan would
be able to fully implement the guidelines it reached with the U.S.
Japan, which operates under the limitations of its Peace Constitution,
cannot implement the joint-defense guidelines under the present
judical system and crisis-management system. With regard to the
dispatching of the Self-Defense Forces, the "Law on the Establishment
of the Defense Agency" and the "Self-Defense Forces Law"
are in place. However, these two laws have been enacted and amended
based on different interpretations of the Constitution. Thus, under
the present system, Japan'S provision of rear area support to the
U.S. Forces could not easily be provided; at best, it would be limited.

Against this backdrop, the Japanese
government and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party sought to enact
and revise the NGL-related legislations, with an aim to ensure effectiveness
of the new Guidelines. Originally devised on April
8, 1998, by the "Security Research Committee" within the
Liberal Democratic Party and finalized as the government draft bills
following a review by the cabinet on April 28, it was revised jointly
- as a political compromise - by the LDP, the Liberal Party, and
the New Komeito. With the approval from Lower House of the Japanese
Diet in April 19995) and from the Upper House
in May, the legislation became law.
A DESCRIPTION OF NGL-RELATED LEGISLATION
ACSA and the Self-Defense Forces Law
The legislation drawn up to ensure
effectiveness of the new Guidelines consisted three basic agreements:
"Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA)" between
the U.S. and Japan, the "Self-Defense Forces Law" and
the "Measures for Securing Peace and Security of Our Country
(Japan) in Situations in Surrounding Areas Act" (hereinafter
refer to as the "Contingency in Surrounding Areas Act").
Among these three, the ACSA and the "Self-Defense Forces Law"
were amended versions of the existing laws, and the "Contingency
in Surrounding Areas Act" was newly enacted. The
main component of the ACSA, first enacted in April 1996, was that
in the event that the U.S. and Japan conducted joint military exercises
or worked together in U.N. peacekeeping operations, they would mutually
provide food and drink, lodging facilities, fuel, and transport.
In the revised ACSA, the clause "in responses to situations
in areas surrounding Japan" was added, so that the ACSA could
also be applied when contingencies arose in surrounding areas. The
previous Self-Defense Forces Law stipulated that when the need arose
for Japanese nationals to be evacuated from a third country, for
example, in the event of a war overseas, only government-use aircraft
and that of the Self-Defense Forces could be used. However, the
revised Law allowed that not only aircraft, but also naval ships
and seaborne helicopters could be dispatched. It also allowed the
use of weapons for the protection of evacuees.
Contingency in Surrounding Areas Act
The "Contingency in Surrounding Areas Act"
is the most essential piece among the newly-enacted articles of
NGL-related legislation.6) It
specifies what constitutes a situation in areas surrounding Japan,
and possible responses, including Japan's provision of rear-area
support to the U.S. Forces, as well as search-and-rescue operations
for wounded U.S. soldiers. In addition, for rear-area support to
the U.S. troops, the Act lists the cooperative measures in activities
initiated not only by the Japanese central government, but also
by local governments and private businesses - the use of private
ports and airports by the U.S. Forces, repair and maintenances of
U.S. naval ships and aircraft, supply of materials such as fuels
and water, transport of persons and goods, and the provision of
communications facilities. Furthermore, the Act stipulates the activities
to be initiated by the cabinet from the time a contingency is anticipated,
and establishes the procedure for obtaining approval from the Diet.
Governmental Drafts and Revisions Made by the Lower House
The government's original draft
of the Contingency in Surrounding Areas Act was revised at the Lower
House hearing. When the original and revised drafts are compared,
the following characteristics can be noted. Firstly, "the situation
in surrounding areas" was re-defined as something comparable
to an emergency situation. That is, the revised version re-defined
the situation in surrounding areas as "a situation that may,
if left alone, develop into a direct armed attack on Japan."
This means that a situation in surrounding areas is regarded as
an emergency (e.g. attack on Japan) and thus, the activities of
the Self-Defense Forces can be expanded in such an event. Therefore,
the objective of the government's original draft, which aims at
"providing rear-support to the U.S. Forces engaged in activities
in response to a situation in surrounding areas that would have
an important influence on Japan's peace and security," has
been altered significantly. Moreover, there is a strong possibility
that the nature of operations by the Self-Defense Forces would be
changed as well. Secondly, a clause
that states that the Act should contribute to a more effective implementation
of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty was added, thereby stressing the
aspect of "an application based on a bilateral agreement."
The original draft had stipulated that ship-inspection activities
should be based on a UN resolution; however, this provision was
removed in the Lower House draft. Instead, other regulations are
to be applied in ship-inspection activities. Thus, the Contingency
in Surrounding Areas Act is seen to have eliminated all elements
other than those directly involving the U.S. and Japan, and has
made it possible for Japan to participate in activities initiated
by the U.S., without UN approval. Thirdly,
the government's original draft required only that "basic plans
be reported to the Diet," whereas the revised version also
includes requirements for obtaining "approval for basic plans
from the Diet" and "ex post facto approval in an emergency
situation." Moreover, the revised version also requires a progress
report on the implementation of basic plans to be made to the Diet.
There may be a number of problems as to what constitutes "an
emergency situation," and this point will be elaborated in
detail in the latter part of this paper. Fourthly,
the revised draft expands the scope of the use of arms by the Self-Defense
Forces dispatched on a mission according to the Contingency in Surrounding
Areas Act, and attempts to base its justification on domestic laws.
The original draft enables the use of arms in "search-and-rescue
activities in rear areas" and "ship-inspection activities."
However, the Lower House draft added a provision to authorize the
Self-Defense Forces to use arms in rear-area support activities.
Meanwhile, the use of arms in "ship-inspection activities"
was eliminated, since the clause on "ship inspection"
was taken out altogether. In addition, permission to
use arms would be based on domestic laws (criminal law) related
to "self-defense" and "emergency evacuation,"
rather than on international laws.7) Considering
that it is customary that international laws are applied to military
operations in the air and sea, a legal interpretation of this aspect
seems necessary. Moreover, the Self-Defense Forces' use of arms
is the issue that most concerns neighboring countries.

PROBLEMS WITH THE NGL-RELATED LAWS AND NORTHEAST
ASIA
The Acquisition and Cross-Servicing
Agreement and the Self-Defense Forces Law do not seem to be problematic.
In contrast, the Measures for Securing Peace and Security of Our
Country (Japan) in Situations in Surrounding Areas Act, which stipulates
the method and scope of rear area support to the U.S. troops provided
by the Self-Defense Forces in response to a situation in areas surrounding
Japan, has become a source of controversy in that it goes beyond
the limit of Japan's defense principle of maintaining of its exclusively
defense-oriented policy, i.e., the principle of 'defending the country
against emergency situations' (armed attacks). First,
it is not clear as to what constitutes a "situation in areas
surrounding Japan." The Japanese government specifies six types
of "situations" as follows: (a) when an armed conflict
is taking place, (b) when an armed conflict is imminent, (c) when
order is not maintained or restored after conflict has temporarily
come to a halt, (d) when subject to economic sanctions by the UN
Security Council, (e) when there is a large influx of refugees caused
by an unstable political situation in neighboring countries, and
(f) when a civil war in a neighboring country expands across the
border. However, at a Diet hearing, the Defense Agency made an ambiguous
comment, "the scope of the activities of the Self-Defense Forces
cannot be geographically specified, but they are not unlimited."
According to Article 1 of the Contingency
in Surrounding Areas Act, "a contingency situation in areas
surrounding Japan" is not specified clearly. It just includes
situations that could have a critical impact on Japan's peace and
security. Japan would be supporting U.S. Forces from "outside
the combat zone" in such a "situation." The question
lies in the fact that the boundaries of front and rear zones have
become increasingly blurred in modern wars. Therefore, military
action by U.S. troops could lead to automatic participation by Japan,
and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces could become agents conducting
direct military actions. Secondly,
there are uncertainties involving the requirement to obtain approval
from the Japanese Diet in the event of a "situation" occurring
in surrounding areas. The law stipulates that when a "situation"
arises, the Diet's approval is required, in principle, prior to
allowing the Self-Defense Forces to engage in activities, including
rear-area support, and search-and-rescue activities. However, it
is possible to obtain ex post facto approval from the Diet in an
"emergency situation." Moreover, details of activities
conducted are to be reported to the Diet. The
problem is that it is unclear what exactly an "emergency situation"
entails. One interpretation is that with a strong demand made by
the U.S., the Self-Defense Forces can conduct activities at the
discretion of the government. In other words, activities
of the Self-Defense Forces could be determined by a handful of policy-makers,
without necessary and sufficient analysis of the situations in Japan
or in neighboring areas. In fact, the Diet's control would be all
but eliminated if government authorities ordered dispatch of the
Self-Defense Forces based on their judgment of an "emergency
situation." 8) Thirdly,
the Japanese government's ability to secure cooperation from local
government organizations is also an issue. In a contingency,
providing support to the U.S. Forces in surrounding areas - local
airports, ports, warehouses, hospitals, arms and ammunition, and
transport of patients - could not be efficiently carried out without
assistance from local government organizations and private businesses,
let alone by the Self-Defense Forces.9)
Therefore, the Contingency in Surrounding
Areas Act stipulates that "the government can request cooperation
from local governments and private individuals."However, it
is doubtful to what extent this provision is legally binding. In
other words, it is questionable whether providing cooperation at
the request of the state is obligatory. The Japanese government
explains, "local governments are not obligated to cooperate,
but it is their general obligation to cooperate." In addition,
although local governments can reject the demands by the central
government provided there are legitimate reasons, there are no clear
standards for deciphering what the "legitimate reasons"
may be. Moreover, no plans are devised for cases in
which local governments refuse without any legitimate reasons.10) Fourthly,
enactment of the Contingency in Surrounding Areas Act is likely
to lead to a discussion on amending the Constitution by the government
and the ruling LDP, whose party platform supports the amendment.
The reason is that Japan's Peace Constitution, which stipulates
maintenance of an exclusively defense-oriented policy with the provisions
for "perpetual renunciation of war, except in defending its
own territories," would become practically meaningless with
these newly-passed subordinate laws. Immediately after
the legislation was passed in the Lower House, a survey showed by
the Sankei Shimbun, 57% in favor of the amendment.11)
This marks a huge increase over the
32% in a survey done by the Prime Minister“p Office last year. It
also indicates that enactment of the NGL-related laws, will provide
the atmosphere for conservatives to voice their options more strongly.
The Peace Constitution, which acted as an obstacle to these laws,
now faces the hawks's demand for amendment.
Effects on the Security Environment in East Asia
Japan's defense budget for this
year stands at U.S. $49 trillion, second only to that of the U.S.
Although Japan does not possess nuclear weapons and aircraft carriers,
it has a high-tech early-warning system based on the Airborne Warning
and Control System (AWACS). Moreover, it boasts sophisticated military
capabilities with a 9000-ton Aegis-class cruiser, dubbed "the
shield of God" that can be linked with a theater missile defense
system (presently owned only by the U.S. and Japan), fuel supplier
aircraft, large transport aircraft, and strong mid-range fire power.
It also has the technological capability to independently manufacture
state-of-the-art fighter jets which are of better quality than Korea's
F16 fighters. Furthermore, in
response to possible threats of medium to long-range missile launches
by North Korea, Japan decided to join the U.S. in research and development
of the Theater Missile Defense (TMD). China has shown strong opposition
to the moves taken by Japan, claiming that TMD is aimed at undermining
its strategic weapons. However, based on the recognition that Pyongyang's
missile development poses a serious security threat, Tokyo is resolved
to go ahead with the TMD development plan. The country is equipped
with enormous economic wealth and the technological prowess to become
a strong military power in a very short period of time if it wishes
to do so. In short, by laying the legal framework to ensure effectiveness
of the new Guidelines, the Self-Defense Forces can now transform
itself into the Japanese Armed Forces. There
are mixed views among neighboring countries over Japan's moves and
with the consolidation of defense cooperation between Tokyo and
Washington. China and North Korea, in particular, have severely
criticized Japan on these points. China, which sees
the "U.S.-Japan Joint Declaration on Security" as an aim
to increase deterrence against it, has denounced the U.S. and Japan
for attempting to check China through the new Guidelines or "NATO
of North East Asia."12) China
is also concerned that the Taiwan straits may be included in the
geographical scope of the "situation in surrounding areas."
In particular, Beijing is most worried about a possible declaration
of independence by Taiwan, which would see its defense capabilities
rise thanks to the development of the TMD by the U.S. and Japan.
Meanwhile, China has been on the offensive against the U.S. and
NATO for their intervention in the Kosovo crisis without a UN resolution,
as well as for the NATO bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade,
and for a Congressional report on Beijing's alleged involvement
in the theft of the U.S. nuclear technology. North
Korea, too, has argued that the NGL-related laws "reveal Japan's
ambition to invade other countries under the pretext of providing
support to the U.S. Forces, and that the laws are part of an invasion
scenario by Washington and Tokyo against Asian countries."
In a commentary titled "Another Invasion Will Lead to Destruction,"
North Korea's state-run Rodong Shinmun criticized, "the new
Guidelines have restored Japan's right to wage war, a right forfeited
after its defeat in World War II, and Japan certainly will seek
to wield military influence in the Asia-Pacific region." 13) In contrast,
South Korea and Southeast Asian countries, including Taiwan, have
shown different reactions. On April 29, on behalf of the South Korean
government, the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and
Trade cautiously commented, "This legislation would contribute
to regional stability in that they are aimed at providing rear-area
support to the U.S. Forces conducting activities for the promotion
of regional peace and stability in case of contingencies in areas
surrounding Japan." The spokesman added, "Korea hopes
the legislation will be implemented in a transparent manner that
would be beneficial to peace and stability in this region."
However, while hoping that the new Guidelines will be instrumental
in deterring war on the Korean peninsula, the South Korean government
is paying close attention to a possible rise in tensions due to
strong opposition from China and the North. Taiwan also welcomed
the legislation as "Tokyo and Washington's measures to protect
democracy and freedom against potential military threats from undemocratic
neighboring countries, which will contribute to peace and security
of Taiwan and Asia." Meanwhile, Southeast Asian nations, currently
in a territorial dispute with China over the South China Sea, appear
to welcome the move by the U.S. and Japan. However,
depending upon neighboring countries'eaction over the new Guidelines,
it could cause greater instability in Northeast Asia. Japan's growing
military power, which exceeds what is necessary to defend its territories,
may trigger an arms competition among neighboring states and subsequently
lead to greater tension in the region. For financial reasons, Russia
may not be in a position to increase its military budget, but China
possesses the capability. North Korea could hasten its own development
of weapons of mass destruction and long-range missiles capable of
reaching Japan. Therefore, Japan's strengthened military role and
influence will not only lead to wariness, but could lead to expansion
of military capabilities in neighboring countries, including China,
Russia, and North Korea. This may eventually herald the advent of
another Cold War era in Northeast Asia. The
recent increase of friction between the U.S. and China, and the
subsequent rapprochement between China and Russia, coordinated moves
by China, Russia, and North Korea to consolidate their ties, and
the climbing tension between China and Taiwan are factors that threaten
peace and stability in Northeast Asia. In the long term, the situation
in Northeast Asia could force the division on the Korean peninsula
to become permanent. Considering the dynamics involved, the four
major powers surrounding the Korean peninsula, could judge the reunification
of the two Koreas, the long-awaited dream of all Korean people,
as undesirable.
CONCLUSION
This paper has examined the NGL-related
legislation passed in both Houses of the Japanese Diet, and has
discussed the problems related with those laws. The legislation
can be evaluated as having raised the U.S.-Japan security arrangements
to a new level, in that the Self-Defense Forces could be dispatched
in the name of providing rear-area support to the U.S. Forces in
response to situations in areas surrounding Japan. The Self-Defense
Forces so far have been limited by Japan's Peace Constitution which
prohibits it from engaging in war. The area to which the Contingency
in Surrounding Areas Act would most likely be applied is on the
Korean peninsula. Nonetheless, compared to other countries, the
Korean government is extremely cautious in expressing its views.
To be sure, Seoul is in a delicate position given its relations
with the U.S. and Japan, and its alliance with the three countries.
However, it must be realized that the NGL-related legislation is
not only of concern to the U.S. and Japan. Some
have given positive reviews, saying that the Contingency in Surrounding
Areas Act would enhance the operation capability of the U.S. Forces
in Northeast Asia, and thus could work as a deterrent against North
Korea military adventurism. The strengthening of the U.S.-Japan
military cooperation could successfully prevent Pyongyang's military
threat or provocation. However, considering recent events, including
the armed confrontation in the West Sea, between naval ships of
the two Koreas, the Contingency in Surrounding Areas Act would have
limited means to effectively deter the North and ease the tension
on the Korean peninsula. For its
part, Korea needs to adopt a new frame of mind, regarding this as
a challenging opportunity, instead of thinking negatively that the
NGL-related legislations would undermine Korea's diplomatic position
in the event of a regional dispute. Since it may have no choice
but to cooperate, it should make the most of the developments by
assuming a proactive role. On
several occasions, strained situations in Northeast Asia and on
the Korean peninsula served as opportunities for Japan to increase
its military strength. In the early 1990s, North Korea's suspected
nuclear development pushed the U.S. to demand cooperation from Japan,
and it laid the foundation for the 1995 U.S.-Japan Joint Declaration
on Security. In addition, North Korea's launch of long-range missiles
in August 1998 triggered Japanese public support for the new Guidelines.
The March 1999 infiltration of a North Korean spy ship streamlined
the passage of the NGL-related legislation in the Lower House of
the Japanese Diet. In this regard, Korea should, above all, be more
prudent in its relations with the North. Furthermore, the geographical
future of Northeast Asia eventually depends upon relations with
China and Japan, rather than with North Korea. Therefore, Korea
should focus on the promotion of cooperation among Korea, the U.S.
and Japan, as well as confidence-building and military exchanges
with Japan. Korea should also play a leading role in establishing
a multilateral security mechanism participated in by all countries
in the region to address wide-ranging issues of regional security.
Korea is the most suitable candidate for leading such an initiative,
one that could create a security cooperative body consisting of
the four powers surrounding the Korean peninsula, and the two Koreas.
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